๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ ๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ
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Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

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Elon Musk # tweets April 11 - April 13, 2026?

0.01 days elapsed · 1.99 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

0

excl. replies

Predicted Total

78

0% confidence SHORT

Daily Rate

0.0

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.63

posts/hour

Today

14

Rhythm: 0.61x

Progress 0.3%
ฯƒ V3b: 32.2 | ฯƒ ร—1.3: 32.2 | pred: 78 (flat=78)

Predicted Range: 65-89 posts

Model: 30.4% · Market: 51.0%

-20.6% edge

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
<40 5.8% 11.2% +5.4% $27,214
40-64 31.0% 22.6% -8.4% $12,602
65-89 51.0% 30.4% -20.6% $20,221
90-114 15.0% 23.1% +8.1% $9,516
115-139 1.9% 9.9% +8.0% $18,355
140-164 0.6% 2.4% +1.8% $21,546
165-189 0.3% 0.3% +0.0% $40,126
190-214 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $17,154
215-239 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $30,047
240+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $49,895
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

0.3% / 50.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=0%<50%

Elon Musk # tweets April 10 - April 17, 2026?

1.01 days elapsed · 5.99 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

38

excl. replies

Predicted Total

269

14% confidence

Daily Rate

37.8

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.6

posts/hour

Today

14

Rhythm: 0.61x

Progress 14.4%
ฯƒ V3b: 76.3 | ฯƒ ร—1.3: 76.3 | pred: 269 (flat=269)

Predicted Range: 260-279 posts

Model: 10.4% · Market: 22.0%

-11.6% edge

Market Distribution (30 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
20-39 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $22,056
40-59 0.1% 0.2%(0.1) +0.1% $8,948
60-79 0.1% 0.4%(0.2) +0.3% $576,474
80-99 0.1% 0.7%(0.5) +0.6% $70,722
100-119 0.1% 1.2%(0.9) +1.1% $67,020
120-139 0.2% 2.0%(1.5) +1.8% $84,106
140-159 0.6% 3.1%(2.4) +2.5% $123,310
160-179 0.7% 4.5%(3.6) +3.8% $92,603
180-199 1.7% 6.1%(5.1) +4.4% $71,717
200-219 6.0% 7.8%(6.8) +1.8% $51,037
220-239 18.0% 9.2%(8.4) -8.8% $44,525
240-259 28.0% 10.1%(9.6) -17.9% $58,547
260-279 22.0% 10.4%(10.3) -11.6% $50,979
280-299 14.0% 10.1%(10.4) -3.9% $61,616
300-319 6.0% 9.0%(9.7) +3.0% $35,089
320-339 3.2% 7.6%(8.5) +4.4% $28,890
340-359 2.1% 6.0%(7.0) +3.9% $30,116
360-379 0.8% 4.4%(5.3) +3.6% $33,388
380-399 0.9% 3.0%(3.8) +2.1% $39,422
400-419 0.5% 1.9%(2.5) +1.4% $38,038
420-439 0.5% 1.1%(1.6) +0.6% $34,264
440-459 0.3% 0.6%(0.9) +0.3% $33,535
460-479 0.3% 0.3%(0.5) +0.0% $43,330
480-499 0.2% 0.2%(0.2) -0.0% $50,160
500-519 0.2% 0.1%(0.1) -0.1% $89,117
520-539 0.2% 0.0%(0.1) -0.2% $96,512
540-559 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $85,921
560-579 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $62,131
580+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $77,669
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $79,617
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

14.4% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=14%<80%

Elon Musk # tweets April 7 - April 14, 2026?

4.01 days elapsed · 2.99 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

141

excl. replies

Predicted Total

243

56% confidence

Daily Rate

35.2

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.42

posts/hour

Today

14

Rhythm: 0.61x

Progress 57.2%
ฯƒ V3b: 39.3 | ฯƒ ร—1.3: 51.1 | pred: 243 (flat=243)

Predicted Range: 240-259 posts

Model: 19.9% · Market: 40.0%

-20.1% edge

Market Distribution (30 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
140-159 0.1% 1.3%(1.4) +1.2% $176,544
160-179 0.2% 3.7%(3.0) +3.5% $288,523
180-199 0.6% 8.3%(5.7) +7.7% $251,220
200-219 5.9% 14.3%(9.2) +8.4% $247,528
220-239 23.0% 19.1%(12.7) -3.9% $207,168
240-259 40.0% 19.9%(15.2) -20.1% $182,414
260-279 23.0% 16.0%(15.5) -7.0% $177,014
280-299 8.0% 10.0%(13.6) +2.0% $176,715
300-319 2.4% 4.9%(10.3) +2.5% $150,808
320-339 0.7% 1.8%(6.7) +1.1% $123,195
340-359 0.5% 0.5%(3.7) +0.0% $143,648
360-379 0.2% 0.1%(1.8) -0.1% $161,566
380-399 0.1% 0.0%(0.7) -0.1% $152,384
400-419 0.1% 0.0%(0.3) -0.1% $148,724
420-439 0.1% 0.0%(0.1) -0.1% $135,874
440-459 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $117,885
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $116,385
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $267,067
500-519 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $87,676
520-539 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $60,826
540-559 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $89,642
560-579 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $94,268
580+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $153,750
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $132,946
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $29,555
40-59 SETTLED LOST - - $28,763
60-79 SETTLED LOST - - $39,328
80-99 SETTLED LOST - - $131,329
100-119 SETTLED LOST - - $79,948
120-139 SETTLED LOST - - $122,045
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

57.2% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=57%<80%

Open Positions

No open positions

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Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

@elonmusk (10 latest)

Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.

Strategy

How it works:

  1. Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
  2. Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
  3. Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
  4. Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.
Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips โ€” better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).
Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.
Edge Model โˆ’ Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.
Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.
Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.
Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ†’ lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.
Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious โ€” requires higher edge to trade.
Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown โ€” model is slightly cautious.
Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.
Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence โ€” model requires much higher edge to act.
๐• Unstable Twitter health check failing (30minโ€“2h). Treated as lull โ€” higher edge required.
๐• Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale โ€” all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.
Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.
Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.
Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 3
Poll Interval 120s
Trade Sizing $2 โ€“ $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count