Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

Elon Musk # tweets June 9 - June 16, 2026?

0.92 days elapsed · 6.08 days left

ACTIVE

Current Posts

excl. replies

Predicted Total

200

13% confidence

Daily Rate

23.8

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.21

posts/hour

Today

Rhythm: 2.03x

Progress 13.2%

pred V3b: 200 (σ=61.3) | pred B: 168 (σ=52.0, win=24h) | flat: 199

Predicted Range: 200-219 posts

Model: 12.8% · Market: 22.0%

-9.2% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market

Range	Market	Model	Edge	Volume
<20	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$52,079
20-39	0.1%	0.3%(0.4)	+0.2%	$36,901
40-59	0.1%	0.7%(1.2)	+0.6%	$89,878
60-79	0.5%	1.4%(2.6)	+0.9%	$112,452
80-99	0.5%	2.6%(5.0)	+2.1%	$126,217
100-119	0.9%	4.5%(8.3)	+3.6%	$41,661
120-139	2.7%	6.8%(11.7)	+4.1%	$31,807
140-159	6.0%	9.3%(14.4)	+3.3%	$18,759
160-179	12.0%	11.5%(15.3)	-0.5%	$12,786
180-199	19.0%	12.8%(14.0)	-6.2%	$13,367
200-219	22.0%	12.8%(11.1)	-9.2%	$18,570
220-239	18.0%	11.5%(7.6)	-6.5%	$15,585
240-259	12.0%	9.3%(4.5)	-2.7%	$15,354
260-279	5.0%	6.8%(2.3)	+1.8%	$15,592
280-299	2.5%	4.5%(1.0)	+2.0%	$17,414
300-319	1.7%	2.6%(0.4)	+0.9%	$15,515
320-339	0.7%	1.4%(0.1)	+0.7%	$29,069
340-359	0.5%	0.7%(0.0)	+0.2%	$27,848
360-379	0.4%	0.3%(0.0)	-0.1%	$21,867
380-399	0.5%	0.1%(0.0)	-0.4%	$21,766
400-419	0.1%	0.0%(0.0)	-0.1%	$50,085
420-439	0.1%	0.0%(0.0)	-0.1%	$63,295
440-459	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$50,903
460-479	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$133,253
480-499	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$85,893
500+	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$155,280

Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

13.2% / 80.0%

Coverage

Bundle Cost

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=13%<80%

Elon Musk # tweets June 8 - June 10, 2026?

1.92 days elapsed · 0.08 days left

ACTIVE

Current Posts

excl. replies

Predicted Total

96% confidence SHORT

Daily Rate

30.2

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.27

posts/hour

Today

Rhythm: 2.03x

Progress 96.1%

pred V3b: 62 (σ=5.2) | pred B: 61 (σ=6.4, win=6h) | flat: 60

Predicted Range: 40-64 posts

Model: 63.8% · Market: 69.0%

-5.2% edge

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market

Range	Market	Model	Edge	Volume
40-64	69.0%	63.8%(60.9)	-5.2%	$195,796
65-89	37.0%	36.2%(39.1)	-0.8%	$151,138
90-114	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	$243,346
115-139	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$150,095
140-164	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$31,412
165-189	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$13,297
190-214	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$17,116
215-239	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$16,536
240+	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$14,148
<40 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$168,904

Hedge Evaluation SKIP — too late (prog≥85%)

Progress

96.1% / 50.0%

Coverage

Bundle Cost

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: prog=96%>=85% (late-prog cap)

Elon Musk # tweets June 5 - June 12, 2026?

4.92 days elapsed · 2.08 days left

ACTIVE

Current Posts

157

excl. replies

Predicted Total

230

70% confidence

Daily Rate

31.9

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.43

posts/hour

Today

Rhythm: 2.03x

Progress 70.3%

pred V3b: 230 (σ=30.6) | pred B: 223 (σ=37.3, win=24h) | flat: 228

Predicted Range: 220-239 posts

Model: 25.8% · Market: 36.9%

-11.1% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market

Range	Market	Model	Edge	Volume
140-159	0.1%	0.3%(0.8)	+0.2%	$191,359
160-179	0.4%	4.0%(8.2)	+3.6%	$224,075
180-199	8.0%	11.3%(15.0)	+3.3%	$157,525
200-219	38.0%	21.0%(20.7)	-17.0%	$111,888
220-239	36.9%	25.8%(21.6)	-11.1%	$127,277
240-259	16.3%	21.0%(17.0)	+4.7%	$102,197
260-279	2.6%	11.3%(10.1)	+8.7%	$121,799
280-299	0.8%	4.0%(4.5)	+3.2%	$106,800
300-319	0.3%	0.9%(1.5)	+0.7%	$123,141
320-339	0.3%	0.1%(0.4)	-0.2%	$213,962
340-359	0.1%	0.0%(0.1)	-0.1%	$170,122
360-379	0.1%	0.0%(0.0)	-0.1%	$118,363
380-399	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$121,449
400-419	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$184,277
420-439	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$174,105
440-459	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$128,509
460-479	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$123,991
480-499	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$117,688
500+	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$184,616
<20 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$19,176
20-39 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$14,856
40-59 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$22,130
60-79 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$123,518
80-99 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$195,093
100-119 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$163,137
120-139 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$161,098

Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

70.3% / 80.0%

Coverage

Bundle Cost

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=70%<80%

Open Positions

No open positions

Click "Trade" on a signal to open a live trade

View trade history →

Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Strategy

How it works:

Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.

Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips — better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).

Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.

Edge Model − Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.

Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.

Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.

Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence → lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.

Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious — requires higher edge to trade.

Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown — model is slightly cautious.

Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.

Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence — model requires much higher edge to act.

𝕏 Unstable Twitter health check failing (30min–2h). Treated as lull — higher edge required.

𝕏 Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale — all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.

Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.

Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.

Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 3

Poll Interval 120s

Trade Sizing $2 – $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count

Elon Musk # tweets June 9 - June 16, 2026?

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Elon Musk # tweets June 8 - June 10, 2026?

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Elon Musk # tweets June 5 - June 12, 2026?

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Open Positions

Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

Strategy

Order Types

Glossary

Rate Quality

Risk Controls

Config