๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ ๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ
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Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

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Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026?

0.86 days elapsed · 1.14 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

20

excl. replies

Predicted Total

50

43% confidence SHORT

Daily Rate

23.2

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.08

posts/hour

Today

10

Rhythm: 0.8x

Progress 43.2%
pred V3b: 50 (ฯƒ=17.1) | pred B: 43 (ฯƒ=14.4, win=6h) | flat: 50

Predicted Range: 40-64 posts

Model: 55.2% · Market: 68.0%

-12.8% edge

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
<40 18.0% 25.0%(38.4) +7.0% $45,832
40-64 68.0% 55.2%(54.9) -12.8% $23,228
65-89 15.0% 18.8%(6.6) +3.8% $42,030
90-114 1.3% 1.0%(0.1) -0.3% $51,912
115-139 0.2% 0.0%(0.0) -0.2% $28,827
140-164 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $14,116
165-189 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $11,580
190-214 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $3,943
215-239 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $5,406
240+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $5,514
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

43.2% / 50.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=43%<50%

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?

1.86 days elapsed · 5.14 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

52

excl. replies

Predicted Total

201

27% confidence

Daily Rate

27.9

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.2

posts/hour

Today

10

Rhythm: 0.8x

Progress 26.6%
pred V3b: 201 (ฯƒ=53.0) | pred B: 206 (ฯƒ=54.4, win=24h) | flat: 200

Predicted Range: 200-219 posts

Model: 14.8% · Market: 24.0%

-9.2% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
40-59 0.1% 0.1%(0.1) +0.0% $6,237
60-79 0.1% 0.7%(0.7) +0.6% $29,347
80-99 0.1% 1.7%(1.5) +1.6% $44,791
100-119 0.4% 3.5%(3.1) +3.1% $56,419
120-139 1.4% 6.2%(5.6) +4.8% $37,212
140-159 7.0% 9.5%(8.7) +2.5% $18,870
160-179 17.0% 12.7%(11.8) -4.3% $12,058
180-199 24.0% 14.7%(14.0) -9.3% $21,292
200-219 24.0% 14.8%(14.6) -9.2% $14,252
220-239 15.0% 12.9%(13.3) -2.1% $8,295
240-259 8.0% 9.8%(10.6) +1.8% $8,014
260-279 3.3% 6.5%(7.4) +3.2% $12,126
280-299 1.4% 3.7%(4.5) +2.3% $22,329
300-319 0.7% 1.9%(2.4) +1.2% $23,931
320-339 0.5% 0.8%(1.1) +0.3% $32,312
340-359 0.2% 0.3%(0.5) +0.1% $37,246
360-379 0.1% 0.1%(0.2) -0.0% $32,043
380-399 0.3% 0.0%(0.1) -0.3% $33,951
400-419 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% $22,248
420-439 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $18,413
440-459 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $11,663
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $9,336
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $9,186
500+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $31,797
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $6,564
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $4,245
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

26.6% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=27%<80%

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

4.86 days elapsed · 2.14 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

136

excl. replies

Predicted Total

195

69% confidence

Daily Rate

28.0

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.14

posts/hour

Today

10

Rhythm: 0.8x

Progress 69.5%
pred V3b: 195 (ฯƒ=26.5) | pred B: 201 (ฯƒ=36.7, win=24h) | flat: 194

Predicted Range: 180-199 posts

Model: 29.3% · Market: 43.0%

-13.7% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
120-139 0.1% 0.6%(1.0) +0.5% $132,846
140-159 0.8% 7.5%(8.7) +6.7% $111,913
160-179 13.0% 19.5%(15.8) +6.5% $89,864
180-199 43.0% 29.3%(21.4) -13.7% $74,189
200-219 32.0% 25.6%(21.7) -6.4% $77,936
220-239 9.0% 13.0%(16.5) +4.0% $74,965
240-259 3.2% 3.8%(9.4) +0.6% $83,706
260-279 0.8% 0.7%(4.0) -0.1% $76,693
280-299 0.3% 0.1%(1.3) -0.2% $88,957
300-319 0.1% 0.0%(0.3) -0.1% $92,377
320-339 0.1% 0.0%(0.1) -0.1% $57,864
340-359 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $39,578
360-379 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $45,547
380-399 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $26,787
400-419 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $24,589
420-439 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $6,227
440-459 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $14,453
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $6,847
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $6,862
500+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $46,766
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $9,675
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $11,645
40-59 SETTLED LOST - - $10,645
60-79 SETTLED LOST - - $37,000
80-99 SETTLED LOST - - $48,128
100-119 SETTLED LOST - - $84,296
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

69.5% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=70%<80%

Open Positions

No open positions

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Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

@elonmusk (10 latest)

Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.

Strategy

How it works:

  1. Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
  2. Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
  3. Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
  4. Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.
Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips โ€” better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).
Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.
Edge Model โˆ’ Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.
Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.
Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.
Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ†’ lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.
Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious โ€” requires higher edge to trade.
Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown โ€” model is slightly cautious.
Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.
Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence โ€” model requires much higher edge to act.
๐• Unstable Twitter health check failing (30minโ€“2h). Treated as lull โ€” higher edge required.
๐• Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale โ€” all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.
Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.
Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.
Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 3
Poll Interval 120s
Trade Sizing $2 โ€“ $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count