๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ ๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ
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Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

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Elon Musk # tweets April 10 - April 17, 2026?

0.96 days elapsed · 6.04 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

38

excl. replies

Predicted Total

278

14% confidence

Daily Rate

39.4

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.65

posts/hour

Today

13

Rhythm: 1.53x

Progress 13.8%
ฯƒ V3b: 78.9 | ฯƒ ร—1.3: 78.9 | pred: 278 (flat=278)

Predicted Range: 260-279 posts

Model: 10.1% · Market: 22.0%

-12.0% edge

Market Distribution (30 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
20-39 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $22,056
40-59 0.1% 0.2%(0.1) +0.1% $8,948
60-79 0.1% 0.3%(0.2) +0.2% $576,474
80-99 0.1% 0.6%(0.4) +0.5% $70,722
100-119 0.1% 1.1%(0.8) +1.0% $67,020
120-139 0.2% 1.8%(1.4) +1.6% $83,861
140-159 0.6% 2.7%(2.2) +2.1% $122,757
160-179 0.5% 4.0%(3.4) +3.5% $92,007
180-199 1.6% 5.4%(4.8) +3.8% $69,749
200-219 5.0% 7.0%(6.3) +2.0% $50,166
220-239 18.0% 8.4%(7.8) -9.6% $44,309
240-259 28.0% 9.5%(9.0) -18.5% $58,058
260-279 22.0% 10.1%(9.9) -12.0% $50,709
280-299 13.0% 10.0%(10.1) -3.0% $61,232
300-319 7.0% 9.3%(9.7) +2.3% $33,147
320-339 3.3% 8.1%(8.7) +4.8% $28,574
340-359 2.1% 6.7%(7.3) +4.6% $29,463
360-379 1.4% 5.1%(5.8) +3.7% $33,222
380-399 1.0% 3.7%(4.3) +2.7% $39,247
400-419 0.5% 2.5%(3.0) +2.0% $37,921
420-439 0.5% 1.6%(2.0) +1.1% $33,210
440-459 0.3% 0.9%(1.2) +0.7% $33,398
460-479 0.3% 0.5%(0.7) +0.2% $43,175
480-499 0.2% 0.3%(0.4) +0.1% $46,997
500-519 0.2% 0.1%(0.2) -0.1% $88,962
520-539 0.2% 0.1%(0.1) -0.1% $96,442
540-559 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $85,921
560-579 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $62,131
580+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $76,669
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $79,617
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

13.8% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=14%<80%

Elon Musk # tweets April 9 - April 11, 2026?

1.96 days elapsed · 0.04 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

67

excl. replies

Predicted Total

68

98% confidence SHORT

Daily Rate

34.1

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.43

posts/hour

Today

13

Rhythm: 1.53x

Progress 98.2%
ฯƒ V3b: 3.2 | ฯƒ ร—1.3: 4.1 | pred: 68 (flat=68)

Predicted Range: 65-89 posts

Model: 99.9% · Market: 99.9%

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
40-64 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $592,634
65-89 99.9% 99.9% 0.0% $257,107
90-114 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% $434,558
115-139 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $256,175
140-164 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $122,549
165-189 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $65,320
190-214 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $85,361
215-239 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $49,009
240+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $53,083
<40 SETTLED LOST - - $250,012
Hedge Evaluation ACTIVE โ€” 0 live legs

Progress

98.2% / 50.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Elon Musk # tweets April 7 - April 14, 2026?

3.96 days elapsed · 3.04 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

141

excl. replies

Predicted Total

261

56% confidence

Daily Rate

35.6

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.64

posts/hour

Today

13

Rhythm: 1.53x

Progress 56.6%
ฯƒ V3b: 44.6 | ฯƒ ร—1.3: 57.9 | pred: 261 (flat=261)

Predicted Range: 260-279 posts

Model: 17.4% · Market: 25.0%

-7.5% edge

Market Distribution (30 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
120-139 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $119,045
140-159 0.1% 0.8%(1.3) +0.7% $176,544
160-179 0.1% 2.3%(2.7) +2.2% $268,651
180-199 0.6% 5.1%(4.8) +4.5% $245,660
200-219 3.2% 9.4%(7.4) +6.2% $234,171
220-239 21.0% 14.0%(10.3) -7.0% $202,698
240-259 40.0% 17.3%(12.6) -22.7% $176,998
260-279 25.0% 17.4%(13.8) -7.5% $174,304
280-299 9.0% 14.5%(13.4) +5.5% $172,526
300-319 2.4% 9.8%(11.6) +7.4% $146,836
320-339 0.8% 5.5%(8.9) +4.7% $121,109
340-359 0.6% 2.5%(6.0) +1.9% $139,369
360-379 0.2% 0.9%(3.6) +0.7% $159,045
380-399 0.1% 0.3%(2.0) +0.2% $152,284
400-419 0.1% 0.1%(0.9) -0.0% $148,724
420-439 0.1% 0.0%(0.4) -0.1% $135,874
440-459 0.1% 0.0%(0.1) -0.1% $117,885
460-479 0.1% 0.0%(0.1) -0.1% $116,067
480-499 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $267,067
500-519 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $87,676
520-539 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $60,826
540-559 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $89,642
560-579 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $94,268
580+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $153,750
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $132,946
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $29,555
40-59 SETTLED LOST - - $28,763
60-79 SETTLED LOST - - $39,328
80-99 SETTLED LOST - - $131,329
100-119 SETTLED LOST - - $79,948
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

56.6% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=57%<80%

Open Positions

No open positions

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Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

@elonmusk (10 latest)

Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.

Strategy

How it works:

  1. Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
  2. Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
  3. Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
  4. Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.
Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips โ€” better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).
Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.
Edge Model โˆ’ Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.
Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.
Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.
Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ†’ lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.
Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious โ€” requires higher edge to trade.
Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown โ€” model is slightly cautious.
Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.
Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence โ€” model requires much higher edge to act.
๐• Unstable Twitter health check failing (30minโ€“2h). Treated as lull โ€” higher edge required.
๐• Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale โ€” all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.
Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.
Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.
Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 3
Poll Interval 120s
Trade Sizing $2 โ€“ $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count