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Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

Polymarket Live Data · XTracker · Posts only (replies excluded)

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Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

6.97 days elapsed · 0.03 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

365

excl. replies

Predicted Total

367

95% confidence

Daily Rate

52.4

posts/day

Hourly Rate

2.18

posts/hour

Today

89

Rhythm: 8.78x

Progress 99.5%

Predicted Range: 360-379 posts

Model: 93.7% · Market: 91.8%

+1.9% edge

Market Distribution (23 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
300-319 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $1,456,649
320-339 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $1,963,759
340-359 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $2,285,230
360-379 91.8% 93.7% +1.9% $1,731,211
380-399 5.7% 6.3% +0.6% $1,577,021
400-419 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% $1,129,775
420-439 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $765,478
440-459 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $631,501
460-479 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $476,155
480-499 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $362,793
500-519 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $275,617
520-539 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $270,444
540-559 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $255,577
560-579 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $306,073
580-599 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $369,151
600-619 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $234,089
620-639 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $147,495
640-659 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $131,795
660-679 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $178,478
680-699 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $116,105
700-719 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $139,631
720-739 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $114,967
740+ 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $259,627

No signals — current rhythm doesn't show sufficient edge (>20%) vs market prices

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

3.97 days elapsed · 3.03 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

252

excl. replies

Predicted Total

445

56% confidence

Daily Rate

63.5

posts/day

Hourly Rate

2.65

posts/hour

Today

89

Rhythm: 8.78x

Progress 56.7%

Predicted Range: 440-459 posts

Model: 18.4% · Market: 13.7%

+4.7% edge

Market Distribution (21 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
180-199 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $348,101
200-219 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $381,700
220-239 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $322,734
240-259 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $278,857
260-279 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% $303,512
280-299 0.5% 0.1% -0.4% $252,377
300-319 0.9% 0.1% -0.7% $237,883
320-339 2.1% 0.5% -1.5% $203,026
340-359 4.8% 1.6% -3.1% $197,308
360-379 9.2% 4.1% -5.1% $174,596
380-399 11.6% 8.2% -3.3% $152,472
400-419 14.3% 13.3% -1.0% $142,536
420-439 13.8% 17.4% +3.7% $159,338
440-459 13.7% 18.4% +4.7% $126,499
460-479 11.3% 15.6% +4.3% $154,150
480-499 7.0% 10.7% +3.8% $118,868
500-519 6.2% 5.9% -0.3% $105,936
520-539 2.8% 2.6% -0.1% $152,504
540-559 1.6% 0.9% -0.6% $141,056
560-579 1.0% 0.3% -0.7% $220,530
580+ 2.1% 0.1% -2.0% $264,583

No signals — current rhythm doesn't show sufficient edge (>20%) vs market prices

Elon Musk # tweets February 9 - February 11, 2026?

0.97 days elapsed · 1.03 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

112

excl. replies

Predicted Total

232

48% confidence

Daily Rate

116.0

posts/day

Hourly Rate

4.83

posts/hour

Today

89

Rhythm: 8.78x

Progress 48.3%

Predicted Range: 215-239 posts

Model: 35.9% · Market: 12.6%

+23.3% edge

Market Distribution (9 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
40-64 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $187,478
65-89 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $88,626
90-114 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% $131,011
115-139 4.5% 0.1% -4.4% $94,031
140-164 23.8% 0.5% -23.2% $98,203
165-189 29.5% 5.1% -24.5% $82,002
190-214 24.4% 20.4% -4.0% $75,202
215-239 12.6% 35.9% +23.3% $87,357
240+ 2.6% 23.6% +21.0% $210,458

Trading Signals (Edge > 20%)

Rhythm-based edge detection
Elon Musk # tweets February 9 - February 11, 2026?
165-189 BUY NO
Market: 29.5% · Model: 5.1% · Edge: -24.5%

Model says 5.1% likely, market at 29.5% → overpriced, buy NO

Elon Musk # tweets February 9 - February 11, 2026?
215-239 BUY YES
Market: 12.6% · Model: 35.9% · Edge: +23.3%

Model says 35.9% likely, market only at 12.6% → underpriced, buy YES

Elon Musk # tweets February 9 - February 11, 2026?
140-164 BUY NO
Market: 23.8% · Model: 0.5% · Edge: -23.2%

Model says 0.5% likely, market at 23.8% → overpriced, buy NO

Elon Musk # tweets February 9 - February 11, 2026?
240+ BUY YES
Market: 2.6% · Model: 23.6% · Edge: +21.0%

Model says 23.6% likely, market only at 2.6% → underpriced, buy YES

Open Positions

Market Entry Shares Cost Now Value P&L Return Action

240+ YES PAPER

February 9 February 11

 0.03¢ 150.9 $4.00 0.03¢ $4.00 $-0.00 -0.0% Edge: 21.0%

215-239 YES PAPER

February 9 February 11

 0.11¢ 36.5 $4.00 0.13¢ $4.58 +$0.58 +14.6% Edge: 23.3%

165-189 NO PAPER

February 9 February 11

 0.72¢ 5.6 $4.00 0.70¢ $3.92 $-0.08 -2.0% Edge: -24.5%

140-164 NO PAPER

February 9 February 11

 0.71¢ 5.7 $4.00 0.76¢ $4.32 +$0.32 +8.1% Edge: -23.2%

115-139 NO PAPER

February 9 February 11

 0.78¢ 5.2 $4.00 0.95¢ $4.93 +$0.93 +23.2% Edge: -4.4%
Total Cost: $20.00
Total Value: $21.75
Total P&L: +$1.75
5 open positions View history →

Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

@elonmusk (10 latest)

Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.

Strategy

Rhythm-based edge detection:

  1. Track Elon's real-time posting rhythm (hourly/daily rate)
  2. Extrapolate current rhythm into end-of-period distribution
  3. Compare Model probability vs Market price
  4. When the gap (edge) exceeds 20%, generate a signal

Key insight: Markets price off historical averages. Our model uses current behavior + remaining time to predict the final total. We win on reaction speed.

Glossary

Market Polymarket YES price. What traders currently think the probability is.
Model Our model's predicted probability. Based on current posting rhythm extrapolated via normal distribution.
Edge Model - Market. Positive = underpriced (buy YES). Negative = overpriced (buy NO).
Shares Outcome tokens purchased. If the outcome is correct, each share pays $1.

Config

Min Edge 20%
Max Trade $4.0
Poll Interval 300s
Active Events 3

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count