Elon Musk # tweets April 10 - April 17, 2026?
Current Posts
38
excl. replies
Predicted Total
278
14% confidence
Daily Rate
39.4
posts/day
Hourly Rate
1.65
posts/hour
Today
13
Rhythm: 1.53x
Predicted Range: 260-279 posts
Model: 10.1% · Market: 22.0%
Market Distribution (30 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-39 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $22,056 |
| 40-59 | 0.1% | 0.2%(0.1) | +0.1% | $8,948 |
| 60-79 | 0.1% | 0.3%(0.2) | +0.2% | $576,474 |
| 80-99 | 0.1% | 0.6%(0.4) | +0.5% | $70,722 |
| 100-119 | 0.1% | 1.1%(0.8) | +1.0% | $67,020 |
| 120-139 | 0.2% | 1.8%(1.4) | +1.6% | $83,861 |
| 140-159 | 0.6% | 2.7%(2.2) | +2.1% | $122,757 |
| 160-179 | 0.5% | 4.0%(3.4) | +3.5% | $92,007 |
| 180-199 | 1.6% | 5.4%(4.8) | +3.8% | $69,749 |
| 200-219 | 5.0% | 7.0%(6.3) | +2.0% | $50,166 |
| 220-239 | 18.0% | 8.4%(7.8) | -9.6% | $44,309 |
| 240-259 | 28.0% | 9.5%(9.0) | -18.5% | $58,058 |
| 260-279 | 22.0% | 10.1%(9.9) | -12.0% | $50,709 |
| 280-299 | 13.0% | 10.0%(10.1) | -3.0% | $61,232 |
| 300-319 | 7.0% | 9.3%(9.7) | +2.3% | $33,147 |
| 320-339 | 3.3% | 8.1%(8.7) | +4.8% | $28,574 |
| 340-359 | 2.1% | 6.7%(7.3) | +4.6% | $29,463 |
| 360-379 | 1.4% | 5.1%(5.8) | +3.7% | $33,222 |
| 380-399 | 1.0% | 3.7%(4.3) | +2.7% | $39,247 |
| 400-419 | 0.5% | 2.5%(3.0) | +2.0% | $37,921 |
| 420-439 | 0.5% | 1.6%(2.0) | +1.1% | $33,210 |
| 440-459 | 0.3% | 0.9%(1.2) | +0.7% | $33,398 |
| 460-479 | 0.3% | 0.5%(0.7) | +0.2% | $43,175 |
| 480-499 | 0.2% | 0.3%(0.4) | +0.1% | $46,997 |
| 500-519 | 0.2% | 0.1%(0.2) | -0.1% | $88,962 |
| 520-539 | 0.2% | 0.1%(0.1) | -0.1% | $96,442 |
| 540-559 | 0.1% | 0.0%(0.0) | -0.1% | $85,921 |
| 560-579 | 0.1% | 0.0%(0.0) | -0.1% | $62,131 |
| 580+ | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $76,669 |
| <20 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $79,617 |
Progress
13.8% / 80.0%
Coverage
0%
Bundle Cost
$0
EV
0%
Ranges
0 / 0
Blocked: progress=14%<80%
Elon Musk # tweets April 9 - April 11, 2026?
Current Posts
67
excl. replies
Predicted Total
68
98% confidence SHORT
Daily Rate
34.1
posts/day
Hourly Rate
1.43
posts/hour
Today
13
Rhythm: 1.53x
Predicted Range: 65-89 posts
Model: 99.9% · Market: 99.9%
Market Distribution (10 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $592,634 |
| 65-89 | 99.9% | 99.9% | 0.0% | $257,107 |
| 90-114 | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2% | $434,558 |
| 115-139 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $256,175 |
| 140-164 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $122,549 |
| 165-189 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $65,320 |
| 190-214 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $85,361 |
| 215-239 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $49,009 |
| 240+ | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $53,083 |
| <40 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $250,012 |
Progress
98.2% / 50.0%
Coverage
0%
Bundle Cost
$0
EV
0%
Ranges
0 / 0
Elon Musk # tweets April 7 - April 14, 2026?
Current Posts
141
excl. replies
Predicted Total
261
56% confidence
Daily Rate
35.6
posts/day
Hourly Rate
1.64
posts/hour
Today
13
Rhythm: 1.53x
Predicted Range: 260-279 posts
Model: 17.4% · Market: 25.0%
Market Distribution (30 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120-139 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $119,045 |
| 140-159 | 0.1% | 0.8%(1.3) | +0.7% | $176,544 |
| 160-179 | 0.1% | 2.3%(2.7) | +2.2% | $268,651 |
| 180-199 | 0.6% | 5.1%(4.8) | +4.5% | $245,660 |
| 200-219 | 3.2% | 9.4%(7.4) | +6.2% | $234,171 |
| 220-239 | 21.0% | 14.0%(10.3) | -7.0% | $202,698 |
| 240-259 | 40.0% | 17.3%(12.6) | -22.7% | $176,998 |
| 260-279 | 25.0% | 17.4%(13.8) | -7.5% | $174,304 |
| 280-299 | 9.0% | 14.5%(13.4) | +5.5% | $172,526 |
| 300-319 | 2.4% | 9.8%(11.6) | +7.4% | $146,836 |
| 320-339 | 0.8% | 5.5%(8.9) | +4.7% | $121,109 |
| 340-359 | 0.6% | 2.5%(6.0) | +1.9% | $139,369 |
| 360-379 | 0.2% | 0.9%(3.6) | +0.7% | $159,045 |
| 380-399 | 0.1% | 0.3%(2.0) | +0.2% | $152,284 |
| 400-419 | 0.1% | 0.1%(0.9) | -0.0% | $148,724 |
| 420-439 | 0.1% | 0.0%(0.4) | -0.1% | $135,874 |
| 440-459 | 0.1% | 0.0%(0.1) | -0.1% | $117,885 |
| 460-479 | 0.1% | 0.0%(0.1) | -0.1% | $116,067 |
| 480-499 | 0.1% | 0.0%(0.0) | -0.1% | $267,067 |
| 500-519 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $87,676 |
| 520-539 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $60,826 |
| 540-559 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $89,642 |
| 560-579 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $94,268 |
| 580+ | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $153,750 |
| <20 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $132,946 |
| 20-39 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $29,555 |
| 40-59 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $28,763 |
| 60-79 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $39,328 |
| 80-99 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $131,329 |
| 100-119 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $79,948 |
Progress
56.6% / 80.0%
Coverage
0%
Bundle Cost
$0
EV
0%
Ranges
0 / 0
Blocked: progress=57%<80%
Open Positions
Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)
Recent Posts
@elonmusk (10 latest)Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.
RT @libsoftiktok: Meet Zul Mohamed. He pleaded guily to 106 felony voter fraud charges for forging mail-in ballot applications. Heโs now rโฆ
2026-04-11T14:10:23
RT @Mick_O_Keeffe: ๐จ๐ฎ๐ช BREAKING! Farmers are being dragged out of their tractors and assaulted by gardaรญ at the Whitegate oil refinery riโฆ
2026-04-11T13:50:21
Grok saved the cat
2026-04-11T13:48:25
Given the extremely high rate of recidivism, this is important for community safety
2026-04-11T13:47:03
Falcon has landed https://t.co/7Lt1sfMs1H
2026-04-11T13:40:39
RT @liz_churchill10: EPIC BACKFIRE IN IRELAND The Irish Government sent in the MILITARY to CRUSH fuel protestersโฆbut the Crowds EXPLODED iโฆ
2026-04-11T06:39:50
RT @NASAAdmin: And splashdown! America is back in the business of sending astronauts to the Moon and bringing them home safely. Reid, Victโฆ
2026-04-11T06:39:33
RT @SpaceX: Falcon 9 launches 25 @Starlink satellites from California https://t.co/KJNQA5eZqJ
2026-04-11T06:38:18
RT @WhiteHouse: NEXT STEP: MARS! https://t.co/X4TJDFp67A
2026-04-11T06:37:30
RT @BasedMikeLee: What if Charlie Kirk had been a beloved figure on the left, rather than among conservatives? And what if Sharon McMahonโฆ
2026-04-11T06:36:00
Strategy
How it works:
- Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
- Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
- Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
- Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing
Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.
Order Types
Glossary
Rate Quality
Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ lower edge threshold.